方法对比

	单盲自然实验	自然实验
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	Late 20th century (formalized practice)	1990s (formal methodological articulation); earlier in epidemiology (John Snow, 1854)
提出者	Conceptual synthesis of natural experiment tradition (Haavelmo, 1944; Campbell & Stanley, 1963) with single-blind methodology	Varied; systematized in econometrics and political science (e.g., Meyer 1995; Angrist & Krueger 1991)
类型	Quasi-experimental design with partial blinding	Quasi-experimental research design
开创性文献	Dunning, T. (2012). Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-1107698000	Meyer, B. D. (1995). Natural and quasi-experiments in economics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(2), 151–161.
别名	single-masked natural experiment, blinded quasi-experiment, single-blind exogenous assignment study	natural quasi-experiment, naturally occurring experiment, exogenous shock design, as-if randomization
相关	2	3
摘要	A single-blind natural experiment leverages an exogenous, researcher-uncontrolled event — such as a policy change, lottery, or natural disaster — to create treatment and comparison groups, while applying single-blind procedures so that either the participants or the outcome assessors (but not both) are unaware of group assignment. This design combines the causal leverage of natural variation with reduced measurement bias from blinding.	A natural experiment exploits a real-world event, policy, or circumstance that assigns individuals to treatment and control conditions in a way that is plausibly random — or at least exogenous to the outcome of interest. Because the researcher does not control assignment, it occupies a middle ground between a true randomized controlled trial and purely observational research, offering stronger causal leverage than conventional observational designs when the as-if randomization assumption holds.