方法对比

	基于仿真的可靠性分析	故障树分析 (FTA)
领域	实验设计	可靠性
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1940s–1980s (Monte Carlo foundations ~1940s; simulation-reliability integration ~1970s–1980s)	1981
提出者	Enrico Fermi, John von Neumann, Stanislaw Ulam (Monte Carlo foundations); Freudenthal (structural reliability); Melchers (simulation integration)	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)
类型	Quantitative probabilistic engineering method	Deductive top-down failure analysis
开创性文献	Melchers, R. E., & Beck, A. T. (2018). Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction (3rd ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1119266075	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
别名	SARA, Monte Carlo reliability analysis, simulation-based reliability assessment, virtual reliability testing	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi
相关	6	3
摘要	Simulation-assisted reliability analysis combines probabilistic reliability theory with computational simulation — most commonly Monte Carlo methods or finite-element models — to estimate the probability that a system, component, or structure will perform its intended function under uncertain operating conditions. Rather than relying solely on closed-form analytical solutions, it propagates uncertainty through high-fidelity numerical models to quantify failure risk across complex, nonlinear, or multi-failure-mode systems.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.