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| 模拟辅助的事后设计× | 蒙特卡洛模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 研究设计 | 决策 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| 起源年份≠ | Ex post facto: 1964; simulation-assisted hybrid: 1990s–2000s | 1949 |
| 提出者≠ | Kerlinger, F. N. (ex post facto basis); simulation integration drawn from computational social science (Axelrod, Epstein, 1990s) | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| 类型≠ | Non-experimental observational design with computational augmentation | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| 开创性文献≠ | Kerlinger, F. N. (1964). Foundations of Behavioral Research. Holt, Rinehart and Winston. link ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | simulation-enhanced causal-comparative design, ex post facto with simulation, retrospective simulation design, SAEPF design | — |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 0 |
| 摘要≠ | Simulation-assisted ex post facto design is a non-experimental observational approach in which the researcher examines already-occurred events or conditions using existing records and then supplements the empirical analysis with computational simulation to approximate counterfactual scenarios that cannot be observed in reality. The design retains the retrospective, naturalistic character of classic ex post facto research while leveraging agent-based, Monte Carlo, or system-dynamics simulation to address the inherent confound limitations of purely archival work. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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