方法对比

	模拟辅助事件树分析	失效模式与影响分析 (FMEA)
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1970s–1990s (formalized in probabilistic risk assessment practice)	1949 (military); widespread industrial adoption 1970s–1980s
提出者	H.A. Watson (Bell Telephone Laboratories, ETA origins ~1961); Monte Carlo integration of ETA developed in nuclear/aerospace PRA community 1970s–1990s	U.S. Military / NASA (formalized by MIL-P-1629, 1949)
类型	Probabilistic risk and reliability assessment method	Proactive risk analysis technique
开创性文献	Zio, E. (2009). Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94(2), 125–141.	Stamatis, D. H. (2003). Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: FMEA from Theory to Execution (2nd ed.). ASQ Quality Press. ISBN: 978-0873895989
别名	Monte Carlo ETA, stochastic event tree analysis, simulation-enhanced ETA, probabilistic event tree simulation	FMEA, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, FMECA, Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis
相关	6	6
摘要	Simulation-assisted event tree analysis (ETA) extends classical event tree analysis by replacing fixed point-estimate branch probabilities with Monte Carlo or discrete-event simulation. This allows analysts to propagate uncertainty through every branch of the tree and obtain full probability distributions over accident sequences and system outcomes, yielding far richer risk insights than deterministic ETA alone.	Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a structured, proactive risk management technique used to identify potential failure modes in a system, process, or product design, evaluate their consequences, and prioritize corrective actions before failures occur. Originally developed for the U.S. military in 1949 and later adopted by NASA, automotive, and manufacturing industries, FMEA is now a cornerstone quality-engineering tool embedded in standards such as AIAG-VDA and ISO 9001-aligned processes.