方法对比
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| 简单和双指数平滑 (SES / Holt)× | 季节性ARIMA（SARIMA）× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 计量经济学 | 计量经济学 |
| 方法族 | Regression model | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1957 | 2015 |
| 提出者≠ | Robert G. Brown (SES); Charles C. Holt (linear trend) | Box & Jenkins (seasonal extension of ARIMA) |
| 类型≠ | Exponential smoothing forecasting model | Seasonal time-series model |
| 开创性文献≠ | Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical Forecasting for Inventory Control. McGraw-Hill. link ↗ | Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. & Ljung, G.M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 |
| 别名≠ | SES, Holt's linear trend method, exponential smoothing forecasting, Basit ve Çift Üstel Düzleştirme (SES / Holt) | seasonal ARIMA, Box-Jenkins seasonal model, SARIMA — Mevsimsel ARIMA |
| 相关≠ | 3 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Exponential smoothing is a family of basic time-series forecasting models in which each new observation updates a smoothed estimate by a weighting parameter. Simple exponential smoothing (SES), introduced by Robert G. Brown in 1959, forecasts series with a stable level, while Holt's double exponential smoothing, introduced by Charles C. Holt in 1957, adds a trend term using the parameters alpha and beta. | SARIMA is a seasonal extension of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model that adds seasonal differencing and seasonal autoregressive and moving-average terms. Developed within the Box, Jenkins, Reinsel and Ljung framework (5th edition, 2015), it forecasts series whose pattern repeats on a yearly, monthly, or weekly period. |
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