方法对比

	Siler Mortality Model	生命表分析
领域	人口学	人口学
方法族	Regression model	Survival analysis
起源年份	1979	1984
提出者	William Siler	Demographic/actuarial tradition; Chiang
类型	Parametric three-component competing-hazard model of the full age pattern of mortality	Age-structured mortality estimator
开创性文献	Siler, W. (1979). A competing-risk model for animal mortality. Ecology, 60(4), 750–757.	Chiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2
别名	Siler Model, Siler Competing-Risk Model, Five-Parameter Siler Hazard	Mortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam Tablosu
相关	4	3
摘要	The Siler model is a parametric description of the entire age pattern of mortality, from birth to extreme old age, built as the sum of three competing hazards: a high but rapidly declining risk in early life, a roughly constant background risk through the prime adult years, and an exponentially rising risk of senescence. With just five parameters it reproduces the characteristic U-shaped (or bathtub) mortality curve seen across humans and many animal species. Introduced by William Siler in 1979 for animal mortality, it has become a standard tool in paleodemography, anthropological demography, and comparative life-history studies where a smooth full-lifespan mortality law is needed.	A life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike.