方法对比

	Siler Mortality Model	李-卡特模型
领域	人口学	人口学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1979	1992
提出者	William Siler	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
类型	Parametric three-component competing-hazard model of the full age pattern of mortality	Stochastic mortality forecasting model
开创性文献	Siler, W. (1979). A competing-risk model for animal mortality. Ecology, 60(4), 750–757.	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.
别名	Siler Model, Siler Competing-Risk Model, Five-Parameter Siler Hazard	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
相关	4	2
摘要	The Siler model is a parametric description of the entire age pattern of mortality, from birth to extreme old age, built as the sum of three competing hazards: a high but rapidly declining risk in early life, a roughly constant background risk through the prime adult years, and an exponentially rising risk of senescence. With just five parameters it reproduces the characteristic U-shaped (or bathtub) mortality curve seen across humans and many animal species. Introduced by William Siler in 1979 for animal mortality, it has become a standard tool in paleodemography, anthropological demography, and comparative life-history studies where a smooth full-lifespan mortality law is needed.	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.