方法对比

	Siler Mortality Model	Gompertz-Makeham Law of Mortality
领域	人口学	人口学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1979	1860
提出者	William Siler	Benjamin Gompertz & William Makeham
类型	Parametric three-component competing-hazard model of the full age pattern of mortality	Parametric mortality (hazard) law for adult ages
开创性文献	Siler, W. (1979). A competing-risk model for animal mortality. Ecology, 60(4), 750–757.	Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 115, 513–583.
别名	Siler Model, Siler Competing-Risk Model, Five-Parameter Siler Hazard	Gompertz-Makeham Model, Makeham's Law, Gompertz Law of Mortality, Gompertz-Makeham Ölümlülük Yasası
相关	4	4
摘要	The Siler model is a parametric description of the entire age pattern of mortality, from birth to extreme old age, built as the sum of three competing hazards: a high but rapidly declining risk in early life, a roughly constant background risk through the prime adult years, and an exponentially rising risk of senescence. With just five parameters it reproduces the characteristic U-shaped (or bathtub) mortality curve seen across humans and many animal species. Introduced by William Siler in 1979 for animal mortality, it has become a standard tool in paleodemography, anthropological demography, and comparative life-history studies where a smooth full-lifespan mortality law is needed.	The Gompertz-Makeham law is the foundational parametric model of adult human mortality. Benjamin Gompertz showed in 1825 that the force of mortality rises exponentially with age, and William Makeham added an age-independent background term in 1860 to account for deaths from causes unrelated to ageing. The combined law expresses the hazard of death as a constant plus an exponentially increasing component, capturing the dominant shape of adult mortality with just three parameters.