方法对比

	Seismic Hazard Deaggregation	概率地震危险性分析 (PSHA)
领域	Disaster Studies	土木工程
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1999	1968
提出者	Paolo Bazzurro & C. Allin Cornell	C. Allin Cornell
类型	Post-processing pipeline that decomposes probabilistic hazard into contributing scenarios	Quantitative probabilistic framework
开创性文献	Bazzurro, P., & Cornell, C. A. (1999). Disaggregation of Seismic Hazard. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 89(2), 501-520.	Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583–1606.
别名	Seismic Hazard Disaggregation, PSHA Disaggregation, Hazard Deaggregation, Controlling Earthquake Deaggregation	PSHA, seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment, Cornell-McGuire method
相关	3	1
摘要	Seismic hazard deaggregation (also spelled disaggregation) is the post-processing step that opens up a probabilistic seismic hazard result to reveal which earthquakes actually drive it. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) integrates over all magnitudes, distances, and ground-motion variability to return a single mean rate at which a ground-motion level is exceeded, but in doing so it loses sight of the individual scenarios. Bazzurro and Cornell's 1999 paper formalized how to invert this aggregation, expressing the contribution to the exceedance rate as a probability distribution over magnitude, distance, and epsilon — the number of standard deviations a target motion sits above the median prediction. The result identifies the controlling earthquake: the magnitude-distance-epsilon combination most responsible for the hazard at a chosen return period. This deaggregation is what lets engineers select realistic scenario earthquakes and ground-motion records for design and analysis. It bridges the probabilistic and deterministic worlds by naming the events hidden inside the integral.	Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a quantitative engineering framework used in civil and geotechnical engineering to estimate the likelihood that ground shaking will exceed a specified intensity level at a site within a given time window. By combining earthquake source geometry, recurrence statistics, and ground-motion attenuation models, PSHA produces hazard curves and maps that inform seismic design codes, infrastructure planning, and risk management decisions.