方法对比

	Scenario Planning for Policy	Multi-Criteria Policy Analysis
领域	Public Policy	Public Policy
方法族	Process / pipeline	MCDM
起源年份	1991	2002
提出者	Pierre Wack & the Royal Dutch/Shell school; popularised by Peter Schwartz	Valerie Belton & Theodor Stewart (synthesis); MCDA tradition
类型	Qualitative strategic-foresight method	Multi-criteria decision analysis applied to policy appraisal
开创性文献	Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Doubleday/Currency. ISBN: 9780385267311	Belton, V., & Stewart, T. J. (2002). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 9780792375050
别名	Scenario Planning, Intuitive Logics Scenarios, Policy Scenario Planning, Strategic Foresight Scenarios	Multi-Criteria Analysis for Policy, MCDA Policy Appraisal, MCA in Policy, Multi-Criteria Policy Appraisal
相关	4	3
摘要	Scenario planning is a strategic-foresight method that develops a small set of plausible, internally consistent and divergent stories about how the future might unfold, in order to test policies and strategies against deep uncertainty. Rooted in the work of Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch/Shell and popularised by Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View, it does not try to predict the future but to expand decision-makers' thinking about it. By exploring several qualitatively different futures, policymakers can craft strategies that are robust across a range of possibilities rather than optimised for a single forecast that may not arrive.	Multi-criteria policy analysis applies multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to appraise and rank policy options against several, often conflicting, objectives that cannot be reduced to a single money metric. Each option is scored on a set of explicit criteria — economic, social, environmental, distributional — the criteria are weighted to reflect their relative importance, and the scores are aggregated into an overall value that ranks the options. Set out comprehensively in Belton and Stewart's 2002 textbook and operationalised for government in the UK's widely used Multi-Criteria Analysis Manual, the approach makes the trade-offs in a policy decision transparent and structured rather than implicit.