方法对比

	Routine Activity Theory	Near-Repeat Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1979	2003
提出者	Lawrence E. Cohen & Marcus Felson	Michael Townsley, Shane Johnson & Kate Bowers
类型	Theoretical framework for explaining the occurrence of predatory crime	Space-time clustering test for crime contagion
开创性文献	Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends: A routine activity approach. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608.	Townsley, M., Homel, R., & Chaseling, J. (2003). Infectious burglaries: A test of the near repeat hypothesis. British Journal of Criminology, 43(3), 615–633.
别名	RAT, Routine Activities Approach, Crime Triangle Framework, Cohen-Felson Theory	Near Repeat Calculator Method, Space-Time Near-Repeat Analysis, Near-Repeat Victimization, Contagion Crime Pattern Analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	Routine activity theory explains predatory crime not by the supply of motivated offenders but by the everyday structure of legal activities that brings offenders, targets, and the absence of guardians together in space and time. Proposed by Lawrence Cohen and Marcus Felson in 1979, it argues that crime rates can rise even when offender motivation is constant, because changes in how people work, shop, and spend leisure time alter the opportunities for crime.	Near-repeat analysis tests whether crimes cluster in space and time beyond chance: after a crime occurs, are nearby locations at elevated risk for a short period? Developed in the early 2000s by Townsley, Johnson, Bowers and colleagues for burglary, it formalizes the 'contagion' or 'communicable disease' pattern of crime using a Knox space-time test against a Monte Carlo reference distribution.