方法对比

	稳健TGARCH	自回归条件异方差 (ARCH) 模型
领域	计量经济学	计量经济学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1994–2000s	1982
提出者	Zakoian (1994) for TGARCH; robust extensions developed through quasi-maximum likelihood and M-estimation literature	Robert F. Engle
类型	Volatility model with asymmetry and robust estimation	Conditional volatility model
开创性文献	Zakoian, J.-M. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931–955.	Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), 987–1007.
别名	robust GJR-GARCH, robust threshold GARCH, heavy-tail TGARCH, outlier-robust TGARCH	ARCH, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Engle ARCH, conditional variance model
相关	6	6
摘要	Robust TGARCH extends the Threshold GARCH model by replacing the conventional maximum likelihood objective with an estimator that is resistant to heavy-tailed innovations and outlying observations. It captures asymmetric volatility responses — where negative shocks amplify variance more than positive shocks — while remaining reliable when the return distribution deviates strongly from normality.	The ARCH model, introduced by Robert Engle in 1982, captures time-varying volatility in financial and macroeconomic time series. It models the conditional variance of today's error as a function of past squared errors, explaining why volatile periods cluster together — a phenomenon known as volatility clustering.