方法对比
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| 稳健情景分析× | 蒙特卡洛模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 仿真 | 决策 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| 起源年份≠ | 1950 (foundations); 2003 (modern RDM formulation) | 1949 |
| 提出者≠ | Wald, A. (minimax foundation); Lempert et al. (RDM framework) | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. |
| 类型≠ | Scenario-based robustness evaluation | Robustness wrapper — Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation |
| 开创性文献≠ | Wald, A. (1950). Statistical Decision Functions. Wiley, New York. link ↗ | Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. (1949). The Monte Carlo method. Journal of the American Statistical Association DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | RSA, Robust Scenario Planning, Worst-Case Scenario Analysis, Minimax Regret Scenario Analysis | — |
| 相关≠ | 5 | 0 |
| 摘要≠ | Robust Scenario Analysis evaluates a set of candidate strategies across a structured collection of plausible future scenarios and selects the strategy that performs acceptably well — or best in the worst case — regardless of which scenario materializes. It merges scenario planning with robustness criteria such as maximin, minimax regret, or satisficing to support decisions under deep, irreducible uncertainty. | MONTE-CARLO-SIMULATION (Monte Carlo Simulation — Stochastic uncertainty propagation through MCDM model) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Metropolis, N., Ulam, S. in 1949. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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