方法对比

	稳健故障树分析	故障树分析 (FTA)
领域	实验设计	可靠性
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1980s–2000s (robustness extensions to classical FTA ca. 1961)	1981
提出者	Extended from classical FTA (Watson, 1961; Bell Labs / U.S. Air Force); robustness extensions developed through reliability engineering and uncertainty quantification research from the 1980s onward	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)
类型	Quantitative reliability and safety analysis with uncertainty propagation	Deductive top-down failure analysis
开创性文献	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG-0492.	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
别名	Robust FTA, Uncertainty-aware FTA, FTA with interval analysis, Imprecise probability FTA	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi
相关	6	3
摘要	Robust Fault Tree Analysis (Robust FTA) extends classical fault tree analysis by explicitly representing and propagating uncertainty in component failure probabilities. Rather than assigning single point estimates to basic events, it uses probability distributions, interval bounds, or imprecise probabilities, then propagates these through the logical tree structure to obtain bounds or distributions on the top-event failure probability. This makes risk conclusions defensible under incomplete or variable data.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.