方法对比

	基于风险的故障树分析	贝叶斯故障树分析
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1961 (FTA origin); risk-based integration formalised 1975–1981	2001 (BFTA mapping); Bayesian networks: 1988
提出者	H.A. Watson (Bell Labs) and developed further by Boeing/U.S. Air Force; risk-based extension via NRC probabilistic risk assessment programs	Andrea Bobbio, Luca Portinale et al. (mapping FTA to Bayesian networks); Judea Pearl (Bayesian networks)
类型	Quantitative safety and reliability analysis	Probabilistic reliability / safety analysis
开创性文献	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG-0492.	Bobbio, A., Portinale, L., Minichino, M., & Ciancamerla, E. (2001). Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 71(3), 249–260.
别名	RB-FTA, risk-informed FTA, quantitative fault tree analysis, probabilistic fault tree analysis	BFTA, Bayesian FTA, Bayesian network fault tree, probabilistic fault tree analysis
相关	6	5
摘要	Risk-based fault tree analysis (RB-FTA) combines classical fault tree analysis with explicit quantitative risk assessment. Starting from an undesired top event, the analyst decomposes it into contributing causes using AND/OR logic gates, assigns failure probabilities to basic events from reliability databases or historical data, and then propagates those probabilities through the tree to compute top-event likelihood. The result is expressed as risk — probability weighted by consequence severity — enabling prioritisation of safety interventions by their actual risk reduction impact.	Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis (BFTA) extends classical fault tree analysis by converting the fault tree structure into an equivalent Bayesian network, enabling probabilistic inference in both forward (prediction) and backward (diagnosis) directions. This integration allows analysts to update failure probability estimates with observed evidence, quantify uncertainty explicitly, and identify the most probable root causes of a top-level system failure.