方法对比

	基于风险的事件树分析	故障树分析 (FTA)
领域	实验设计	可靠性
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1975 (WASH-1400); risk-based integration formalized through 1980s–1990s PRA practice	1981
提出者	Originated in nuclear industry (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, WASH-1400 report); risk-based framing developed through probabilistic risk assessment practice	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)
类型	Risk and reliability analysis technique	Deductive top-down failure analysis
开创性文献	Bedford, T., & Cooke, R. (2001). Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0521773201	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
别名	Risk-based ETA, probabilistic event tree analysis, consequence-probability event tree, risk-informed ETA	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi
相关	4	3
摘要	Risk-based event tree analysis is a forward-looking, inductive risk assessment technique that models the consequences of an initiating event by tracing binary success/failure branches through safety barriers, then weights each outcome path by its probability to produce quantified risk estimates. Widely applied in nuclear, chemical process, aviation, and infrastructure safety engineering, it sits at the heart of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and supports both design decisions and regulatory compliance.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.