方法对比

	Retirement Transition Event-History Analysis	Healthy Life Expectancy
领域	Social Gerontology	人口学
方法族	Survival analysis	Survival analysis
起源年份	1998	1971
提出者	Mark D. Hayward and colleagues	Daniel F. Sullivan (Sullivan method); developed by the WHO/REVES tradition
类型	Time-to-event hazard model of labor-force exit	Health-expectancy estimator partitioning life expectancy into healthy and unhealthy years
开创性文献	Hayward, M. D., Friedman, S., & Chen, H. (1998). Career trajectories and older men's retirement. The Journals of Gerontology Series B, 53B(2), S91-S103.	Sullivan, D. F. (1971). A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, 86(4), 347–354.
别名	Retirement Hazard Model, Labor-Force Exit Survival Analysis, Retirement Timing Event-History Model, Discrete-Time Retirement Model	HALE, Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy, Disability-Free Life Expectancy
相关	3	4
摘要	Retirement transition event-history analysis applies survival and hazard modeling to the timing of the move out of the labor force in later life, treating retirement as a datable event whose risk unfolds over time. Rather than asking only whether someone is retired, it models the rate at which still-working older people retire at each age or duration, and how that rate depends on health, pensions, career history, and other life-course factors. Mark Hayward and colleagues' 1998 study of older men's retirement exemplifies the approach, showing that occupational and career trajectories shape the timing of labor-force exit, with different career conditions mattering at different stages. The method handles the central problem that many people are still working when observed, through right-censoring, and it accommodates covariates that change over time such as deteriorating health or pension eligibility. It can be implemented as a continuous-time proportional-hazards model or as a discrete-time model on person-period data. The result is a life-course account of why people retire when they do, expressed as transition rates and hazard ratios.	Healthy life expectancy partitions ordinary life expectancy into the years a person can expect to live in good health and the years expected to be lived with disability or ill health. Building on the life table, the classic Sullivan method weights each age interval's person-years by the prevalence of good health, so the resulting expectancy answers not just 'how long will people live?' but 'how many of those years will be healthy?'. It has become a headline summary of population health, reported by the World Health Organization as HALE and tracked alongside life expectancy to judge whether longer lives are also healthier lives.