方法对比

	Regression Discontinuity in Sentencing	Interrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1983	1980
提出者	Richard A. Berk & David Rauma (criminological application); Donald L. Thistlethwaite & Donald T. Campbell (design origin)	George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao (intervention analysis); David McDowall, Richard McCleary, and colleagues (criminological text)
类型	Quasi-experimental causal design at a policy threshold	Quasi-experimental evaluation of a policy effect on a time series
开创性文献	Berk, R. A., & Rauma, D. (1983). Capitalizing on nonrandom assignment to treatments: A regression-discontinuity evaluation of a crime-control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78(381), 21–27.	McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A. (1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Sage Publications. ISBN: 9780803914933
别名	Sentencing Threshold RDD, Cutoff-Based Justice Evaluation, Risk-Score Discontinuity Design, Age-of-Majority Discontinuity	Crime Intervention Analysis, ITS Crime Evaluation, Quasi-Experimental Time Series for Crime, Pre-Post Crime Trend Analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	Regression discontinuity (RD) in sentencing exploits the sharp thresholds built into justice policy — sentencing-guideline cutoffs, the age of majority, risk-score thresholds that trigger detention or diversion — to estimate causal effects without a randomized trial. Units just above the cutoff receive a different treatment from units just below it, yet they are otherwise nearly identical, so comparing their outcomes isolates the effect of crossing the line. Berk and Rauma's 1983 evaluation of a crime-control program showed how criminologists can 'capitalize on nonrandom assignment' created by such rules.	Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis evaluates whether a law, policy, or intervention changed the course of a crime series. By modeling the level and slope of crime before and after a dated 'interruption' — a gun-control law, a policing crackdown, a sentencing reform — it tests whether the series jumped or bent at that moment relative to its prior trend. Box and Tiao formalized intervention analysis in 1975, and McDowall, McCleary, and colleagues brought the method to criminology in their widely used 1980 monograph.