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| Recidivism Survival Analysis× | Kaplan-Meier 估计器× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | Criminology | 统计学 |
| 方法族 | Survival analysis | Survival analysis |
| 起源年份≠ | 1988 | 1958 |
| 提出者≠ | David R. Cox (method); Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte (criminological application) | Edward L. Kaplan and Paul Meier |
| 类型≠ | Time-to-event regression for reoffending | Nonparametric estimator |
| 开创性文献≠ | Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 34(2), 187–202. DOI ↗ | Kaplan, E. L., & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457–481. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | Time-to-Recidivism Modeling, Recidivism Hazard Modeling, Failure-Time Analysis of Reoffending, Survival Analysis of Reoffending | KM estimator, product-limit estimator, Kaplan-Meier curve, survival curve estimator |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 2 |
| 摘要≠ | Recidivism survival analysis models the time from a release or index event until an individual reoffends, treating reoffending as a time-to-event ('failure') outcome with censoring for those not observed to fail. It applies survival methods — Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and split-population models — to answer not just whether someone recidivates but how quickly and what raises or lowers that risk over time. | The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a nonparametric method for estimating the survival function S(t) — the probability that an individual survives beyond time t — from data that include censored observations. Introduced by Edward L. Kaplan and Paul Meier in their landmark 1958 JASA paper, it is the standard first step in any survival analysis and is among the most-cited statistical methods in biomedical research. |
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