方法对比

	Real-Time Delphi	Trend Impact Analysis
领域	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2006	1972
提出者	Theodore J. Gordon & Adam Pease	Theodore J. Gordon (The Futures Group / Millennium Project)
类型	Roundless, asynchronous computer-mediated expert-elicitation pipeline	Probabilistic trend-extrapolation pipeline perturbed by future events
开创性文献	Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, round-less almost real time Delphi method. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 321-333.	Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross-impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116.
别名	RT Delphi, Round-less Delphi, Real-Time Delphi Method, Continuous Delphi	TIA, Trend-Impact Forecasting, Probabilistic Trend Perturbation, Event-Adjusted Trend Extrapolation
相关	4	3
摘要	Real-Time Delphi is a roundless, asynchronous, computer-mediated reinvention of the classic Delphi method, developed by Theodore Gordon and Adam Pease in 2006. Where conventional Delphi proceeds through discrete questionnaire rounds — collect, aggregate, redistribute, repeat — Real-Time Delphi collapses the rounds entirely: experts log in to an online platform whenever they choose, see the panel's current aggregate estimates and the rationales behind them, and revise their own answers continuously, with the aggregate updating live as they do. This always-on feedback architecture preserves the core Delphi virtues of anonymity and structured feedback while removing the long delays, fixed schedules, and administrative burden of round-based administration. As described by Gordon and Pease and catalogued in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, the method makes large, distributed, and time-pressured expert elicitations practical, letting a panel converge through continuous interaction rather than through a rigid sequence of rounds.	Trend impact analysis (TIA) is a forecasting method that marries quantitative extrapolation with expert judgment about disruptive future events. Developed by Theodore Gordon and colleagues at The Futures Group in the early 1970s and later codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, it starts from a 'surprise-free' baseline produced by fitting and projecting a historical time series. It then asks which unprecedented events — events with no historical analog that ordinary extrapolation cannot anticipate — could deflect that trend, and with what probability, magnitude, and timing. Through Monte Carlo simulation those probabilistic impacts perturb the baseline, yielding not a single line but a probability envelope that shows how the trend might bend if the unexpected occurs.