方法对比

	Real-Time Delphi	Environmental Scanning for Foresight
领域	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2006	2003
提出者	Theodore J. Gordon & Adam Pease	Joseph Voros (generic foresight process framework); Millennium Project / Futures Research Methodology
类型	Roundless, asynchronous computer-mediated expert-elicitation pipeline	Input-stage scanning pipeline for the generic foresight process
开创性文献	Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, round-less almost real time Delphi method. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(4), 321-333.	Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21.
别名	RT Delphi, Round-less Delphi, Real-Time Delphi Method, Continuous Delphi	Foresight Environmental Scanning, Strategic Environmental Scanning, Foresight Input Scanning, Voros Input-Stage Scanning
相关	4	4
摘要	Real-Time Delphi is a roundless, asynchronous, computer-mediated reinvention of the classic Delphi method, developed by Theodore Gordon and Adam Pease in 2006. Where conventional Delphi proceeds through discrete questionnaire rounds — collect, aggregate, redistribute, repeat — Real-Time Delphi collapses the rounds entirely: experts log in to an online platform whenever they choose, see the panel's current aggregate estimates and the rationales behind them, and revise their own answers continuously, with the aggregate updating live as they do. This always-on feedback architecture preserves the core Delphi virtues of anonymity and structured feedback while removing the long delays, fixed schedules, and administrative burden of round-based administration. As described by Gordon and Pease and catalogued in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, the method makes large, distributed, and time-pressured expert elicitations practical, letting a panel converge through continuous interaction rather than through a rigid sequence of rounds.	Environmental scanning for foresight is the systematic surveillance of an organization's external environment to collect, filter, and interpret the signals of change that feed a structured foresight process. In Joseph Voros's 2003 generic foresight process framework, scanning is the input stage — the activity that gathers the raw material on which all subsequent analysis depends — and the quality of that input bounds the quality of everything that follows. The method is deliberately broad and continuous: it casts a wide net across many channels, sifts the resulting flood for what is relevant, and interprets the survivors into emerging trends and issues. As codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, environmental scanning is the foundational discipline of strategic foresight, valued because foresight that rests on a narrow or stale view of the environment is foresight built on sand, however sophisticated the downstream methods.