方法对比

	Real Options Strategy Valuation	Strategic Scenario Planning
领域	战略管理	战略管理
方法族	MCDM	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1994	1995
提出者	Avinash Dixit & Robert Pindyck; Lenos Trigeorgis; Rita McGrath	Pierre Wack; Paul Schoemaker; Kees van der Heijden
类型	Option-valuation framework for strategic investment under uncertainty	Structured foresight process for strategy under deep uncertainty
开创性文献	Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 9780691034102	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
别名	Real Options Reasoning, Strategic Flexibility Valuation, Options-Based Strategy Analysis, Growth and Deferral Option Valuation	Intuitive-Logics Scenario Method, Scenario-Based Strategic Planning, Strategic Foresight Scenarios, Shell-Style Scenario Planning
相关	4	4
摘要	Real options strategy valuation treats discretionary strategic investments - the chance to defer, expand, contract, stage, switch, or abandon a project - as financial-style options whose value comes from managerial flexibility under uncertainty. Dixit and Pindyck's 1994 Investment under Uncertainty established the theory that, when investment is irreversible and the future is uncertain, the right to wait has positive value and raises the threshold above which committing capital is optimal. Trigeorgis's 1996 synthesis showed how to decompose a strategic project's worth into a passive net present value plus the premium attached to its embedded options, and how to value those options with contingent-claims logic. Rita McGrath's 1999 work brought the same reasoning to strategy and entrepreneurship, arguing that managers should pursue high-variance opportunities with small, staged commitments so that downside is capped while upside stays open.	Strategic scenario planning is a structured foresight method that helps organizations make decisions under deep uncertainty by constructing a small set of internally consistent, sharply divergent stories about how the future could unfold. The dominant 'intuitive-logics' tradition was pioneered at Royal Dutch/Shell by Pierre Wack, whose 1985 Harvard Business Review account showed how scenarios prepared Shell's managers for the 1973 oil shock by changing how they perceived their world rather than by predicting it. Paul Schoemaker's 1995 Sloan Management Review article codified the approach into a repeatable step-by-step process for managers, and Kees van der Heijden's 1996 book reframed scenarios as the centerpiece of an ongoing 'strategic conversation' through which an organization builds shared understanding and adaptive capacity. The aim is not to forecast a single future but to make strategy robust across several plausible ones.