方法对比

	Randomized Controlled Trial in Criminology	Deterrence Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1995	1968
提出者	Lawrence W. Sherman & David Weisburd	Cesare Beccaria & Jeremy Bentham (classical); Gary Becker & Daniel Nagin (modern)
类型	Experimental impact evaluation of justice interventions	Theory and empirical analysis of how punishment deters offending
开创性文献	Sherman, L. W., & Weisburd, D. (1995). General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime hot spots: A randomized, controlled trial. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 625–648.	Nagin, D. S. (2013). Deterrence in the twenty-first century: A review of the evidence. Crime and Justice, 42(1), 199–263.
别名	Criminological Field Experiment, Experimental Criminology Trial, Place-Based Randomized Trial, Justice RCT	Deterrence Theory, Certainty-Severity-Celerity Analysis, Perceptual Deterrence Analysis, Focused Deterrence Analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	A randomized controlled trial (RCT) in criminology evaluates a justice intervention — such as hot-spots policing, a deterrence message, or a reentry program — by randomly assigning units (places, people, or cases) to receive the intervention or to serve as controls. Because assignment is by chance, treatment and control groups are statistically equivalent at baseline, so any later difference in crime or reoffending can be attributed to the intervention rather than to selection. Sherman and Weisburd's 1995 Minneapolis hot-spots patrol experiment helped establish the design as the gold standard of experimental criminology.	Deterrence analysis studies how the threat and imposition of legal punishment discourage crime. Rooted in classical criminology and formalized in Gary Becker's economic model, it distinguishes the certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment, separates perceived from objective sanction risk, and uses quasi-experimental and perceptual evidence — synthesized by Daniel Nagin — to test how much, and through what channels, punishment actually deters.