方法对比

	Rainfall-Runoff Modeling	Peaks-Over-Threshold Flood Analysis
领域	Disaster Studies	Disaster Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1979	1999
提出者	Keith J. Beven (Primer; TOPMODEL with M. J. Kirkby)	M. Lang, T. B. M. J. Ouarda & B. Bobée (operational POT guidelines); Pickands–Balkema–de Haan theory
类型	Process-based hydrologic simulation pipeline	Threshold-exceedance extreme-value frequency pipeline
开创性文献	Beven, K. J. (2012). Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer (2nd ed.). Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester. ISBN: 9780470714591	Lang, M., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., & Bobée, B. (1999). Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 225(3-4), 103-117.
别名	Hydrological Modeling, Watershed Runoff Simulation, Catchment Hydrologic Modeling, Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models	POT Flood Analysis, Partial Duration Series Analysis, Generalized Pareto Flood Modeling, Threshold Exceedance Flood Frequency
相关	3	3
摘要	Rainfall-runoff modeling simulates how precipitation falling on a catchment is transformed into streamflow at its outlet, accounting for the water that is intercepted, infiltrated, stored, evaporated, and routed through soils and channels. Models range from simple lumped conceptual stores (such as the unit hydrograph or bucket-type models) to spatially distributed, physically based representations of the catchment. Keith Beven's Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer is the standard reference, and his and Kirkby's 1979 TOPMODEL — built on a topographic wetness index that predicts where saturated, runoff-generating areas expand — remains one of the most influential conceptual formulations. Because real catchments are heterogeneous and only partly observable, calibration against gauged discharge and explicit treatment of parameter uncertainty (Beven's GLUE framework) are central. The models drive flood forecasting, water-resource planning, and assessment of land-use and climate change.	Peaks-over-threshold (POT) flood analysis models every independent flood peak that exceeds a chosen high threshold, rather than only the single largest peak in each year. The number of exceedances in time is treated as a Poisson process and the amounts by which peaks exceed the threshold are modeled with the Generalized Pareto distribution — the extreme-value limit for threshold exceedances given by the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem. Because a wet year may contain several damaging floods and a dry year none, POT (also called the partial duration series) uses the data more efficiently than the annual-maximum approach, which is why Lang, Ouarda, and Bobée's 1999 operational guidelines and USGS Bulletin 17C both treat it as a key complement to annual-maximum frequency analysis. The method delivers the same design-flood quantiles for chosen return periods, often with lower variance at short return periods.