方法对比

	Psychological Momentum in Sport	Sequential Behavior Analysis in Sport
领域	Sport Leisure Studies	Sport Leisure Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1988	1997
提出者	Robert J. Vallerand, Paul G. Colavecchio & Luc G. Pelletier; Jim Taylor & Andrew Demick	Roger Bakeman & John M. Gottman
类型	Perceptual model linking precipitating events to performance through momentum perception	Sequential pipeline for transition probabilities of coded behavior streams
开创性文献	Vallerand, R. J., Colavecchio, P. G., & Pelletier, L. G. (1988). Psychological momentum and performance inferences: A preliminary test of the antecedents-consequences psychological momentum model. Journal of Sport & Exercise Psychology, 10(1), 92-108.	Bakeman, R., & Gottman, J. M. (1997). Observing Interaction: An Introduction to Sequential Analysis (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521574273
别名	Sport Momentum Analysis, Perceived Momentum, Momentum Chain Modeling, PM Model	Lag Sequential Analysis, Sequential Pattern Analysis, Transition Probability Analysis, T-Pattern Analysis
相关	3	3
摘要	Psychological momentum is the perception that one is progressing toward a goal, often triggered by a precipitating event such as a scoring run, and widely believed to shape subsequent performance. Robert Vallerand, Paul Colavecchio, and Luc Pelletier's 1988 antecedents-consequences model gave the construct its decisive shape by insisting that momentum is a perception that must be distinguished from both its antecedents (the events that trigger it) and its consequences (the affective, motivational, and behavioral changes it produces). Jim Taylor and Andrew Demick's 1994 multidimensional model extended this into a 'momentum chain,' specifying how precipitating events interact with personal and situational factors to alter cognition, affect, physiology, and ultimately performance. Studying psychological momentum therefore means measuring perception as a mediator, not assuming that a hot streak automatically causes the next success.	Sequential behavior analysis treats a sporting performance not as a bag of independent events but as an ordered stream in which what happens next depends on what just happened. Drawing on Roger Bakeman and John Gottman's authoritative 1997 text Observing Interaction: An Introduction to Sequential Analysis, the method codes play into a time-ordered sequence of mutually exclusive events, builds a transition matrix counting how often each event is followed by each other event at a given lag, and converts these counts into conditional transition probabilities. Crucially, it tests those probabilities against what would be expected by chance, so that genuinely recurrent patterns of play — the move that reliably leads to a shot, the defensive action that triggers a turnover — can be distinguished from coincidence. Hughes and Bartlett's performance-indicator framework supplies the bridge from these tested sequences to actionable tactical knowledge.