方法对比

	Propensity Weighting in Criminology	Randomized Controlled Trial in Criminology
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1983	1995
提出者	Paul R. Rosenbaum & Donald B. Rubin (propensity score); Robert Apel & Gary Sweeten (criminological adaptation)	Lawrence W. Sherman & David Weisburd
类型	Observational causal estimator for justice exposures	Experimental impact evaluation of justice interventions
开创性文献	Apel, R. J., & Sweeten, G. (2010). Propensity score matching in criminology and criminal justice. In A. R. Piquero & D. Weisburd (Eds.), Handbook of Quantitative Criminology (pp. 543–562). Springer.	Sherman, L. W., & Weisburd, D. (1995). General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime hot spots: A randomized, controlled trial. Justice Quarterly, 12(4), 625–648.
别名	IPTW for Justice Exposures, Inverse-Probability Weighting in Criminology, Propensity-Weighted Crime Effects, Observational Treatment-Effect Weighting	Criminological Field Experiment, Experimental Criminology Trial, Place-Based Randomized Trial, Justice RCT
相关	4	4
摘要	Propensity weighting estimates the causal effect of a justice exposure — incarceration, gang membership, a program, or a sanction — from observational data when randomization was impossible. It models each unit's probability of receiving the exposure given measured confounders (the propensity score) and then weights units by the inverse of that probability, creating a pseudo-population in which the exposure is unrelated to those confounders. Rosenbaum and Rubin introduced the propensity score in 1983, and Apel and Sweeten adapted it for criminology, where ethical and practical barriers make experiments rare.	A randomized controlled trial (RCT) in criminology evaluates a justice intervention — such as hot-spots policing, a deterrence message, or a reentry program — by randomly assigning units (places, people, or cases) to receive the intervention or to serve as controls. Because assignment is by chance, treatment and control groups are statistically equivalent at baseline, so any later difference in crime or reoffending can be attributed to the intervention rather than to selection. Sherman and Weisburd's 1995 Minneapolis hot-spots patrol experiment helped establish the design as the gold standard of experimental criminology.