方法对比

	Preston-Coale Method	稳定人口理论
领域	人口学	人口学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	1982	1972
提出者	Samuel H. Preston & Ansley J. Coale	Alfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale
类型	Death distribution method that reconstructs a population from its deaths to estimate registration completeness	Mathematical demographic model
开创性文献	Preston, S. H., & Coale, A. J. (1982). Age structure, growth, attrition, and accession: a new synthesis. Population Index, 48(2), 217–259.	Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4
别名	Synthetic extinct generations method, SEG method, Preston-Coale death distribution method, Preston-Coale Yöntemi	Lotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi
相关	4	2
摘要	The Preston-Coale method, also called the synthetic extinct generations method, estimates the completeness of death registration by rebuilding a population from the very deaths it records. Introduced by Samuel Preston and Ansley Coale in 1982, it uses the variable-r relations of a non-stable population to project each age group's future deaths forward, growth-adjust them, and accumulate them into the number of people who must currently be alive at each age. Comparing this implied population with the observed census count reveals what fraction of deaths the vital system actually captures.	Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase.