方法对比
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| 政策情景微观模拟× | 随机微观模拟× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份 | 1957 | 1957 |
| 提出者 | Guy H. Orcutt | Guy H. Orcutt |
| 类型≠ | Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis | Stochastic individual-level simulation |
| 开创性文献≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation | Probabilistic Microsimulation, Monte Carlo Microsimulation, Stochastic Micro-simulation, SMSM |
| 相关≠ | 5 | 6 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation. | Stochastic Microsimulation tracks a large population of individual units — people, households, or firms — through time by applying random draws from empirically estimated probability distributions at each transition event. Unlike deterministic counterparts, every state change is decided by chance, preserving realistic heterogeneity and allowing rigorous uncertainty quantification across multiple simulation runs. |
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