方法对比
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| 政策情景微观模拟× | Agent-Based Microsimulation× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 仿真 | 仿真 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1957 | 1957 (microsimulation); 2000s (hybrid ABMS) |
| 提出者≠ | Guy H. Orcutt | Orcutt, G. H. (microsimulation roots); Bonabeau, E. and others (ABM integration) |
| 类型≠ | Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis | Hybrid simulation |
| 开创性文献≠ | Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123. DOI ↗ | Birkin, M., & Clarke, M. (2012). The enhancement of spatial microsimulation models using geodemographics. Annals of Regional Science, 49(2), 515–532. DOI ↗ |
| 别名 | PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation | ABMS, Agent-Based Micro-Simulation, Microsimulation with Agent-Based Modeling, Hybrid ABM-Microsimulation |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation. | Agent-based microsimulation (ABMS) merges traditional microsimulation's individual-level statistical tracking with agent-based modeling's behavioral rules and interaction mechanisms. It creates virtual populations of heterogeneous agents who evolve over time according to transition probabilities, adaptive behaviors, and social interactions, producing emergent system-level outcomes from micro-level dynamics. |
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