方法对比

	合成控制法用于政策评估	倾向得分匹配
领域	因果推断	研究统计学
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2003-2010	1983
提出者	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal; extended by Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
类型	Causal inference / comparative case study	Method
开创性文献	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
别名	Synthetic Control Method, SCM, Synthetic Control, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
相关	5	3
摘要	The Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is a causal inference technique for evaluating the effect of a policy or intervention on a single treated unit — such as a region, country, or firm — by constructing a weighted combination of untreated comparison units that closely mirrors the treated unit before the intervention. Introduced by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and formalized by Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010), it provides a data-driven, transparent counterfactual for comparative case studies.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.