方法对比

	政策评估安慰剂检验	置换 (随机化) 检验
领域	因果推断	统计学
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1990s–2000s	2005
提出者	Bertrand, Duflo & Mullainathan (2004 canonical formalization); Imbens & Wooldridge (2009 textbook treatment)	Good (2005); Edgington & Onghena (2007); resampling tradition
类型	Falsification / specification check	Nonparametric resampling test
开创性文献	Imbens, G. W., & Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(1), 5-86.	Good, P. (2005). Permutation, Parametric and Bootstrap Tests of Hypotheses (3rd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387202792
别名	placebo test, falsification test, fake treatment test, placebo regression	randomization test, exact permutation test, re-randomization test, Permütasyon Testi
相关	4	5
摘要	A policy evaluation placebo test is a falsification check used in quasi-experimental research to validate a causal identification strategy. The researcher applies the same estimation method to a pseudo-treatment — a time period, group, or outcome where the real policy could not have had an effect — and checks that no spurious effect is detected. A null placebo result builds confidence that the main estimate reflects a genuine causal impact rather than bias or confounding.	The permutation test is a nonparametric resampling procedure that builds the sampling distribution of a test statistic directly from the data by repeatedly shuffling the group labels. Developed in the resampling tradition and treated systematically by Good (2005) and Edgington & Onghena (2007), it requires no parametric distributional assumption and yields an exact p-value.