方法对比

	政策评估中断时间序列	合成控制法 (SCM)
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1975 (intervention analysis); 2000s–2010s (policy evaluation framing)	2003–2010
提出者	Box & Tiao (1975); popularised for policy by Shadish, Cook & Campbell (2002) and Bernal et al. (2017)	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)
类型	Quasi-experimental causal design	Quasi-experimental causal inference
开创性文献	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
别名	ITS for policy evaluation, policy ITS, segmented regression for policy, policy impact ITS	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method
相关	4	4
摘要	Interrupted Time Series (ITS) for policy evaluation uses routinely collected aggregate time-series data to estimate the causal impact of a policy change. A segmented regression model splits the series at a known intervention date, estimating both an immediate level shift and a change in trend attributable to the policy — without requiring a randomised control group.	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.