方法对比

	试点自然实验	现场试验
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2000s–2010s (as formalized practice)	Mid-20th century (systematised 1960s–1990s)
提出者	Combination of natural experiment tradition (Dunning, Angrist, Pischke) and pilot study methodology	Rooted in Campbell & Stanley (1966) experimental design tradition; formalised in clinical and social research through the 20th century
类型	Quasi-experimental feasibility design	Experimental design
开创性文献	Dunning, T. (2012). Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9781107017412	Campbell, D. T., & Stanley, J. C. (1966). Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for research. Rand McNally. ISBN: 978-0395307878
别名	feasibility natural experiment, preliminary natural experiment, pilot quasi-experiment, exploratory natural experiment	pilot field trial, small-scale field experiment, feasibility field experiment, exploratory field experiment
相关	4	3
摘要	A pilot natural experiment is a small-scale preliminary study that exploits an existing exogenous event or policy variation to test whether a full natural experiment is viable. It preserves the core logic of natural experiments — using real-world discontinuities to approximate causal inference — while explicitly scoping the work to assess data availability, group comparability, effect detectability, and procedural feasibility before committing resources to a larger study.	A pilot field experiment is a small-scale, preliminary version of a planned full field experiment conducted in a naturalistic setting. It tests whether the intervention, randomisation procedure, measurement instruments, and logistical protocols are feasible before committing to a full-scale study. Results inform sample size calculations, refine treatment protocols, and identify procedural risks — saving resources and improving the quality of the definitive study.