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| 试点自然实验× | 双重差分法 (Diff-in-Diff)× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 实验设计 | 计量经济学 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 2000s–2010s (as formalized practice) | 1994 |
| 提出者≠ | Combination of natural experiment tradition (Dunning, Angrist, Pischke) and pilot study methodology | Card & Krueger (canonical 1994 application); Angrist & Pischke (textbook treatment) |
| 类型≠ | Quasi-experimental feasibility design | Causal inference / panel regression |
| 开创性文献≠ | Dunning, T. (2012). Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences: A Design-Based Approach. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9781107017412 | Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0691120355 |
| 别名≠ | feasibility natural experiment, preliminary natural experiment, pilot quasi-experiment, exploratory natural experiment | diff-in-diff, DiD, Farkların Farkı (Diff-in-Diff) |
| 相关≠ | 4 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | A pilot natural experiment is a small-scale preliminary study that exploits an existing exogenous event or policy variation to test whether a full natural experiment is viable. It preserves the core logic of natural experiments — using real-world discontinuities to approximate causal inference — while explicitly scoping the work to assess data availability, group comparability, effect detectability, and procedural feasibility before committing resources to a larger study. | Difference-in-Differences is a causal-inference method that estimates the effect of an intervention by comparing how a treatment group and a control group change over time. Made famous by Card and Krueger's 1994 minimum-wage study and developed in Angrist and Pischke's Mostly Harmless Econometrics, it isolates the treatment effect as the difference between the two groups' before-after changes. |
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