方法对比

	多臂试验可行性测试	自适应多臂试验
领域	实验设计	实验设计
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1990s–2000s	2000s–2010s (MAMS framework formalized c. 2003–2011)
提出者	Evolved from clinical trial methodology; consolidated in the 1990s–2000s	Patrick Royston, Mahesh Parmar, and colleagues (multi-arm multi-stage framework); further developed by James Wason, Thomas Jaki and others
类型	Experimental design (pilot/feasibility)	Experimental design
开创性文献	Thabane, L., Ma, J., Chu, R., Cheng, J., Ismaila, A., Rios, L. P., Robson, R., Thabane, M., Giangregorio, L., & Goldsmith, C. H. (2010). A tutorial on pilot studies: The what, why and how. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 10(1), 1.	Royston, P., Parmar, M. K. B., & Qian, W. (2003). Novel designs for multi-arm clinical trials with survival outcomes with an application in ovarian cancer. Statistics in Medicine, 22(14), 2239–2256.
别名	pilot multi-arm trial, feasibility multi-arm study, pilot parallel-arm experiment, preliminary multi-arm experiment	MAMS design, multi-arm adaptive trial, adaptive platform trial, response-adaptive multi-arm experiment
相关	6	3
摘要	A pilot multi-arm experiment is a small-scale preliminary trial that tests the feasibility, logistics, and parameter estimates needed to plan a full-scale multi-arm study. It simultaneously evaluates two or more active treatment arms alongside a control, providing early evidence on recruitment rates, retention, protocol adherence, variability, and likely effect sizes before committing to a resource-intensive definitive experiment.	An adaptive multi-arm experiment simultaneously evaluates several treatment conditions against a common control and modifies the trial in real time based on accumulating data — dropping ineffective arms early, reallocating participants toward promising ones, or adjusting sample sizes — all while controlling error rates. The approach maximizes information gained per participant and reduces the time and cost required to identify effective treatments relative to running sequential separate trials.