方法对比

	Participatory Scenario Planning	Deliberative Monetary Valuation
领域	Environmental Sociology	Environmental Economics
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2003	2007
提出者	Garry D. Peterson, Graeme S. Cumming & Stephen R. Carpenter	Clive L. Spash (and the deliberative-valuation tradition)
类型	Multi-stakeholder pipeline for exploring plausible environmental futures	Deliberative pipeline combining group reasoning with monetary valuation
开创性文献	Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R. (2003). Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World. Conservation Biology, 17(2), 358-366.	Spash, C. L. (2007). Deliberative monetary valuation (DMV): Issues in combining economic and political processes to value environmental change. Ecological Economics, 63(4), 690-699.
别名	Exploratory Scenario Planning, Participatory Futures Scenarios, Stakeholder Scenario Development, Social-Ecological Scenario Planning	Deliberated Willingness to Pay, Group-Based Environmental Valuation, Citizens' Jury Valuation, Social Willingness to Pay
相关	3	3
摘要	Participatory scenario planning is a structured, multi-stakeholder method for exploring how a social-ecological system might unfold under irreducible uncertainty, rather than predicting a single most-likely future. Drawing on the scenario tradition formalized for conservation by Peterson, Cumming and Carpenter in 2003, it brings together researchers, managers, and affected communities to identify the forces driving change, isolate the critical uncertainties that matter most, and build a small set of contrasting yet plausible and internally consistent narratives. Candidate policies are then stress-tested across these alternative futures to find strategies that remain acceptable no matter which future arrives. Because the scenarios are co-produced, the method also builds shared understanding and social capital among participants who may begin with divergent interests.	Deliberative monetary valuation is a hybrid method that combines the deliberative processes of political theory with the monetary metric of environmental economics, eliciting willingness to pay for environmental change through structured group discussion rather than isolated individual survey responses. In Clive Spash's 2007 analysis, the approach responds to a central criticism of conventional stated-preference methods — that they assume people arrive with well-formed preferences and treat them as private consumers — by giving participants information, time, and the company of others with whom to reason before expressing a value. Deliberation can produce individual willingness-to-pay figures formed through discussion, or genuinely social values agreed by the group acting as citizens. Spash stresses that the resulting numbers can rest on very different ethical bases, from market exchange to fair prices to expressive or arbitrated social judgments, which complicates their interpretation as standard welfare measures.