方法对比
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| 自然实验× | 双重差分法 (Diff-in-Diff)× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 实验设计 | 计量经济学 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | Regression model |
| 起源年份≠ | 1990s (formal methodological articulation); earlier in epidemiology (John Snow, 1854) | 1994 |
| 提出者≠ | Varied; systematized in econometrics and political science (e.g., Meyer 1995; Angrist & Krueger 1991) | Card & Krueger (canonical 1994 application); Angrist & Pischke (textbook treatment) |
| 类型≠ | Quasi-experimental research design | Causal inference / panel regression |
| 开创性文献≠ | Meyer, B. D. (1995). Natural and quasi-experiments in economics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(2), 151–161. DOI ↗ | Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0691120355 |
| 别名≠ | natural quasi-experiment, naturally occurring experiment, exogenous shock design, as-if randomization | diff-in-diff, DiD, Farkların Farkı (Diff-in-Diff) |
| 相关≠ | 3 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | A natural experiment exploits a real-world event, policy, or circumstance that assigns individuals to treatment and control conditions in a way that is plausibly random — or at least exogenous to the outcome of interest. Because the researcher does not control assignment, it occupies a middle ground between a true randomized controlled trial and purely observational research, offering stronger causal leverage than conventional observational designs when the as-if randomization assumption holds. | Difference-in-Differences is a causal-inference method that estimates the effect of an intervention by comparing how a treatment group and a control group change over time. Made famous by Card and Krueger's 1994 minimum-wage study and developed in Angrist and Pischke's Mostly Harmless Econometrics, it isolates the treatment effect as the difference between the two groups' before-after changes. |
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