方法对比

	多状态生存模型	柔性参数生存模型（Royston-Parmar）
领域	生存分析	生存分析
方法族	Survival analysis	Survival analysis
起源年份	1978	2002
提出者	Andersen, P.K. & Keiding, N. (foundational framework); popularised by Putter, Fiocco & Geskus (2007)	Royston, P. & Parmar, M.K.B.
类型	Semi-parametric hazard model	Parametric survival regression model
开创性文献	Putter, H., Fiocco, M. & Geskus, R.B. (2007). Tutorial in Biostatistics: Competing Risks and Multi-State Models. Statistics in Medicine, 26(11), 2389–2430.	Royston, P. & Parmar, M.K.B. (2002). Flexible Parametric Proportional-Hazards and Proportional-Odds Models for Censored Survival Data, with Application to Prognostic Modelling and Estimation of Treatment Effects. Statistics in Medicine, 21(15), 2175–2197.
别名	illness-death model, multi-state transition model, Çok Durumlu Model (Multi-State / Illness-Death)	flexible parametric model, restricted cubic spline survival model, stpm2, Esnek Parametrik Survival Modeli (Royston-Parmar)
相关	4	8
摘要	The multi-state model is a generalised survival framework, formalised in the work of Andersen and Keiding and brought to wide biostatistical practice by Putter, Fiocco and Geskus (2007), that models individuals moving through multiple distinct health states — for example, healthy, ill and dead — over time. A separate hazard function is estimated for each possible transition, and transition probabilities are recovered via the product-integral of the cumulative transition intensities.	The Royston-Parmar model, introduced by Royston and Parmar in 2002, is a modern parametric approach to survival analysis that replaces the rigid distributional assumptions of classical models with a restricted cubic spline fitted to the log-cumulative-hazard scale. It combines the interpretability of a fully parametric model with the flexibility to capture non-standard hazard shapes, and it supports proportional-hazards, accelerated failure-time, and proportional-odds link functions.