方法对比

	多期反事实概率加权法	Marginal Structural Model (MSM)
领域	因果推断	因果推断
方法族	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	2000	2000
提出者	Robins, Hernan & Brumback	James M. Robins, Miguel A. Hernan, Babette Brumback
类型	Weighted causal estimator	Causal model / semiparametric weighting
开创性文献	Robins, J. M., Hernan, M. A., & Brumback, B. (2000). Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology, 11(5), 550-560.	Robins, J. M., Hernan, M. A., & Brumback, B. (2000). Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology, 11(5), 550-560.
别名	longitudinal IPW, multi-period IPW, time-varying IPW, sequential IPW	MSM, MSM-IPTW, marginal structural Cox model, weighted structural model
相关	6	5
摘要	Multi-period Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) estimates the causal effect of a treatment that varies across multiple time periods by reweighting observations according to the probability of receiving each period's treatment given past treatment history and time-varying confounders. It creates a pseudo-population where treatment at each period is independent of measured confounders, enabling unbiased estimation of sustained treatment strategies.	A marginal structural model is a causal modeling framework designed to estimate the effect of a time-varying treatment in the presence of time-varying confounders that are themselves affected by prior treatment. By reweighting observations with inverse probability of treatment weights, MSMs create a pseudo-population in which confounding is eliminated, enabling unbiased estimation of causal treatment contrasts even when standard regression adjustments would fail.