方法对比

	迁移模型（推拉/多区域）	队列-要素人口预测	辐射模型（Radiation Model）	空间交互（引力）模型
领域	人口学	人口学	空间分析	空间分析
方法族	Regression model	Process / pipeline	Regression model	Regression model
起源年份	1966	2001	2012	1971
提出者	Everett Lee	Preston, Heuveline & Guillot	Filippo Simini et al.	Alan Wilson (entropy-maximizing family)
类型	Theoretical-quantitative migration framework	Demographic projection pipeline	Parameter-free spatial interaction model	Model of flows between spatial origins and destinations
开创性文献	Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57.	Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2	Simini, F., González, M. C., Maritan, A., & Barabási, A.-L. (2012). A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature, 484, 96–100.	Wilson, A. G. (1971). A family of spatial interaction models, and associated developments. Environment and Planning A, 3(1), 1–32.
别名	Push-Pull Migration Theory, Multiregional Migration Model, Lee Migration Framework, Göç Modelleri	Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu	Radiation Law of Human Mobility, Parameter-free Mobility Model, Simini Radiation Model, Radyasyon Modeli	gravity model, spatial interaction model, competing destinations model, mekânsal etkileşim modeli
相关	3	3	3	4
摘要	Migration models are quantitative frameworks for explaining and forecasting population movement between geographic units. Lee's (1966) push-pull theory classifies factors at origin and destination into positive and negative forces, modulated by intervening obstacles. Widely used by demographers, regional planners, and policy researchers to project labor mobility, refugee flows, and urbanization trends across national and subnational geographies.	Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.	The Radiation Model, introduced by Simini et al. in 2012, is a parameter-free model for predicting human mobility and migration flows between geographic locations. Drawing an analogy from radiation physics, it predicts trip volumes based solely on population sizes at origin and destination, and the intervening population within the circle connecting them. It has been widely applied to commuting flows, migration, and epidemic spreading.	Spatial interaction models predict the volume of flows — migrants, commuters, shoppers, trade, trips — between origins and destinations as a function of the size of each place and the distance or cost separating them. By analogy to Newton's gravity, interaction rises with the 'mass' of origin and destination and falls with separation, and Wilson's 1971 entropy-maximizing family put these models on a rigorous footing for transport, migration, and retail analysis.