方法对比

	Migration Aspirations-Capabilities Survey	Intention-to-Migrate Prediction
领域	Migration Studies	Migration Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	2002	2002
提出者	Jorgen Carling; Hein de Haas	Jorgen Carling; Hein de Haas
类型	Survey-measurement pipeline for migration aspiration and ability	Predictive regression model of migration behavior from stated intentions
开创性文献	de Haas, H. (2021). A Theory of Migration: The Aspirations-Capabilities Framework. Comparative Migration Studies, 9, 8.	Carling, J. (2002). Migration in the Age of Involuntary Immobility: Theoretical Reflections and Cape Verdean Experiences. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 28(1), 5-42.
别名	Aspiration-Ability Migration Survey, Aspiration-Capability Framework Measurement, Involuntary Immobility Survey, Migration Aspiration and Ability Typology	Migration Intention Modeling, Stated-Intention Migration Prediction, Intention-Behavior Gap Analysis, Migration Plan Predictive Modeling
相关	3	3
摘要	The migration aspirations-capabilities survey measures two distinct things that migration research had long run together: whether a person wants to migrate and whether they are able to. Jorgen Carling's 2002 study of Cape Verde introduced the crucial insight that wanting to leave and being able to leave are separate, and that their mismatch produces 'involuntary immobility' — the large and often overlooked population that aspires to move but cannot. Hein de Haas's 2021 aspirations-capabilities framework generalized this into a broad theory of migration grounded in Amartya Sen's idea of capabilities as substantive freedoms. The measurement strategy asks respondents about their aspiration to migrate and, separately, their perceived capability to do so, then cross-classifies the two into a two-by-two typology: voluntary mobility, involuntary immobility, voluntary immobility, and acquiescent or trapped immobility. This simple cross-tabulation reframes migration as one outcome of the interaction between freedom and constraint, putting non-migration and trapped populations on the analytic map alongside actual movers. The survey thereby measures not just who moves but who wishes to and the gap between desire and possibility.	Intention-to-migrate prediction models stated plans to migrate as a forecast of actual migration behavior, taking seriously that what people say they will do is informative but imperfect. Migration surveys routinely ask whether respondents intend or plan to move, and these stated intentions are among the strongest available predictors of who later migrates; yet the link is far from one-to-one, because intentions are frustrated by constraints and some moves happen without prior plans. Jorgen Carling's 2002 work on involuntary immobility highlighted exactly this slippage between wanting or planning to migrate and being able to, and Hein de Haas's 2021 aspirations-capabilities framework formalized why intentions translate into behavior only when capability is present. The method estimates the probability of intending to migrate from individual and contextual covariates, relates intention to subsequent observed moves, and explicitly measures the intention-behavior gap. It then calibrates and validates its predictions against later migration, and refines them by conditioning on capability. The aim is honest, validated prediction rather than treating stated intention as destiny.