方法对比

	匹配的III期临床试验	倾向得分匹配
领域	流行病学	研究统计学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	Mid-20th century (matching in RCTs formalized ~1950s–1970s)	1983
提出者	Fisher, R. A. (matching principles); adapted into confirmatory trial design over mid-20th century	Paul Rosenbaum and Donald Rubin
类型	Controlled confirmatory clinical trial with matching	Method
开创性文献	Rothman, K. J., Greenland, S., & Lash, T. L. (2008). Modern Epidemiology (3rd ed.). Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. ISBN: 978-0781755641	Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41–55.
别名	matched controlled Phase III trial, Phase III matched-pair trial, matched confirmatory trial, matched late-phase RCT	PSM, propensity score weighting, covariate balance
相关	5	3
摘要	A matched Phase III clinical trial is a confirmatory, late-stage controlled study in which each participant assigned to the experimental treatment is paired with one or more controls who share key prognostic characteristics — such as age, disease stage, or comorbidities — before treatment allocation. By ensuring baseline comparability at the level of matched pairs, the design reduces confounding and improves statistical efficiency in settings where simple randomization alone may produce imbalanced groups or where full randomization is logistically or ethically constrained.	Propensity score matching (PSM) is a method for reducing confounding bias in observational studies by balancing baseline characteristics between treatment groups, simulating randomization. Developed by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), it estimates the probability of receiving treatment given observed covariates, then matches or weights treated and control individuals with similar treatment probabilities. Widely used in medicine, epidemiology, and policy evaluation when randomized trials are infeasible or unethical, enabling estimation of treatment effects while controlling for selection bias.