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| 马尔可夫开关多重分形模型× | 卡尔曼滤波器× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域≠ | 时间序列 | 贝叶斯 |
| 方法族≠ | Process / pipeline | Bayesian methods |
| 起源年份≠ | 2004 | 1960 |
| 提出者≠ | Luc E. Calvet | Rudolf E. Kalman |
| 类型≠ | Stochastic volatility model | recursive Bayesian filter |
| 开创性文献≠ | Calvet, L. E., & Fisher, A. J. (2004). How to forecast long-run volatility: regime-switching and the estimation of multifractal processes. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2(1), 49–83. DOI ↗ | Kalman, R. E. (1960). A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Journal of Basic Engineering, 82(1), 35-45. DOI ↗ |
| 别名≠ | MSM, Markov-switching multifractal volatility | linear quadratic estimator, LQE, Kalman-Bucy filter, optimal recursive filter |
| 相关≠ | 3 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | The Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) model is a flexible framework for capturing time-varying volatility and long-memory effects in financial time series. Developed by Calvet and Fisher (2004), it combines Markov chain theory with multifractal scaling principles to generate volatility that exhibits multiple frequency components, each switching between high and low regimes. This approach is particularly effective for modeling asset returns with realistic fat tails and clustered volatility. | The Kalman filter is an optimal recursive algorithm for estimating the hidden state of a linear dynamical system from noisy measurements. At each time step it alternates between a prediction step — projecting the state forward using the system model — and an update step that corrects the prediction with the new observation, producing minimum-variance state estimates and their uncertainty in real time. |
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