方法对比

	Markov 模型在卫生经济学中的应用	卫生经济学中的决策分析模型
领域	卫生经济学	卫生经济学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1983	1975
提出者	Beck & Pauker (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)	Pauker & Kassirer (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)
类型	Method	Method
开创性文献	Beck, J. R., & Pauker, S. G. (1983). The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis. Medical Decision Making, 3(4), 419-458.	Pauker, S. G., & Kassirer, J. P. (1975). Therapeutic Decision Making: A Cost-Benefit Analysis. New England Journal of Medicine, 293(5), 229-234.
别名	Markov model, state transition model, cohort simulation	decision analysis, decision tree, decision model, health economic model
相关	5	5
摘要	A Markov model is a decision-analytic tool that simulates disease progression through defined health states over time, calculating cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to enable cost-effectiveness analysis. Developed by Beck and Pauker in 1983, Markov models are now the standard framework for projecting long-term outcomes of health interventions, especially chronic diseases where patients transition between clinical states (treatment response, disease progression, remission, death). Used by health technology assessment bodies and pharmaceutical companies to predict intervention value beyond trial duration.	Decision analytic modeling is a systematic framework for comparing health interventions by integrating evidence on probabilities, outcomes, costs, and patient preferences into a quantitative model. Developed by Pauker and Kassirer in 1975, decision analysis structures clinical uncertainty and economic trade-offs, enabling transparent comparison of treatment options and identification of optimal strategies. Used in health technology assessment, clinical practice guideline development, and resource allocation decisions.