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| Markov 模型在卫生经济学中的应用× | 成本-效益分析 (CEA)× | |
|---|---|---|
| 领域 | 卫生经济学 | 卫生经济学 |
| 方法族 | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| 起源年份≠ | 1983 | 1984 |
| 提出者≠ | Beck & Pauker (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital) | Drummond & Stoddart (Health Economics Research Group, McMaster University) |
| 类型 | Method | Method |
| 开创性文献≠ | Beck, J. R., & Pauker, S. G. (1983). The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis. Medical Decision Making, 3(4), 419-458. DOI ↗ | Gold, M. R., Siegel, J. E., Russell, L. B., & Weinstein, M. C. (Eds.). (1996). Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. New York: Oxford University Press. link ↗ |
| 别名 | Markov model, state transition model, cohort simulation | CEA, ICER, Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio |
| 相关 | 5 | 5 |
| 摘要≠ | A Markov model is a decision-analytic tool that simulates disease progression through defined health states over time, calculating cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to enable cost-effectiveness analysis. Developed by Beck and Pauker in 1983, Markov models are now the standard framework for projecting long-term outcomes of health interventions, especially chronic diseases where patients transition between clinical states (treatment response, disease progression, remission, death). Used by health technology assessment bodies and pharmaceutical companies to predict intervention value beyond trial duration. | Cost-effectiveness analysis compares the incremental cost per unit of health benefit gained by one intervention relative to a comparator (standard care or best alternative). Developed rigorously in the 1980s by Drummond, Stoddart, and colleagues, CEA is now the standard framework for technology appraisal globally. NICE, HAS, CADTH, and other health technology assessment bodies use CEA to decide which treatments warrant public funding and at what price. |
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