方法对比

	Markov 模型在卫生经济学中的应用	预算影响分析 (BIA)
领域	卫生经济学	卫生经济学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	1983	2005
提出者	Beck & Pauker (medical decision analysis, Massachusetts General Hospital)	Sullivan, Mauskopf, and colleagues (ISPOR task force)
类型	Method	Method
开创性文献	Beck, J. R., & Pauker, S. G. (1983). The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis. Medical Decision Making, 3(4), 419-458.	Sullivan, S. D., Mauskopf, J. A., Augustovski, F., et al. (2014). Budget Impact Analysis—Principles of Good Practice: Report of the ISPOR 2012 Budget Impact Analysis Good Practice II Task Force. Value in Health, 17(1), 5-14.
别名	Markov model, state transition model, cohort simulation	BIA, financial impact assessment, budget consequence analysis
相关	5	5
摘要	A Markov model is a decision-analytic tool that simulates disease progression through defined health states over time, calculating cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) to enable cost-effectiveness analysis. Developed by Beck and Pauker in 1983, Markov models are now the standard framework for projecting long-term outcomes of health interventions, especially chronic diseases where patients transition between clinical states (treatment response, disease progression, remission, death). Used by health technology assessment bodies and pharmaceutical companies to predict intervention value beyond trial duration.	Budget impact analysis estimates the financial consequences (net costs or savings) of implementing a new health technology in a specific healthcare system or population over a short time horizon (typically 1–5 years). Distinct from cost-effectiveness analysis (which compares health outcomes per dollar), BIA answers a budgetary question: 'If we adopt this new drug/device, how much will it cost our health system next year?' Widely used by hospital procurement committees, insurance formularies, and government health budgets to assess financial feasibility and reimbursement decision.