方法对比

	Life-Course Criminology Analysis	Desistance Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	1993	2001
提出者	Robert J. Sampson & John H. Laub	John H. Laub & Robert J. Sampson; Shawn D. Bushway et al.
类型	Theoretical framework and longitudinal analytic strategy for offending over the life course	Time-to-event and trajectory modeling of ceasing offending
开创性文献	Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life. Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674176058	Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. Crime and Justice, 28, 1–69.
别名	Age-Graded Theory of Informal Social Control, Sampson-Laub Life-Course Theory, Developmental Life-Course Criminology, Life-Course Theory of Crime	Desistance Modeling, Time-to-Desistance Analysis, Cessation-of-Offending Analysis, Criminal Career Termination Analysis
相关	5	4
摘要	Life-course criminology analyzes both continuity and change in offending across the entire life span, anchored in Sampson and Laub's age-graded theory of informal social control. The core claim is that social bonds that emerge at different ages — strong marriages, stable employment, military service — function as informal social control that can redirect criminal trajectories, so that change is possible at any age and is not fully determined by childhood propensity.	Desistance analysis models the process by which offenders cease offending — estimating the timing of the last offense, the hazard of termination, and the decline of offending toward zero. Sharpened by Laub and Sampson and by Bushway and colleagues around 2001, it treats desistance not as a single event but as a process, and confronts the deep measurement problem of telling true termination apart from a long gap or a gradual slowing of crime.