方法对比

	Keyfitz Entropy	李-卡特模型
领域	人口学	人口学
方法族	Process / pipeline	Regression model
起源年份	1977	1992
提出者	Nathan Keyfitz	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
类型	Elasticity of life expectancy to proportional mortality change / lifespan dispersion measure	Stochastic mortality forecasting model
开创性文献	Keyfitz, N. (1977). Applied Mathematical Demography. John Wiley & Sons, New York. ISBN: 9780471473503	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.
别名	Life-Table Entropy, Keyfitz-Leser Entropy, Entropy of the Survival Curve	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
相关	4	2
摘要	Keyfitz's entropy, usually written H, is a dimensionless summary of a life table that measures how sensitive life expectancy is to a proportional change in mortality, and equivalently how unequal the distribution of ages at death is. Introduced by Nathan Keyfitz, it is the elasticity of life expectancy at birth with respect to the force of mortality: an H near one means deaths are spread across all ages so that reducing mortality everywhere lengthens life proportionally, while an H near zero means deaths are concentrated near the maximum lifespan so further mortality reductions yield little gain. It bridges the demography of survival and the broader study of lifespan inequality.	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.