方法对比

	Journey to Crime Analysis	Near-Repeat Analysis
领域	Criminology	Criminology
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2000	2003
提出者	D. Kim Rossmo (geographic profiling); journey-to-crime tradition	Michael Townsley, Shane Johnson & Kate Bowers
类型	Spatial analysis of offender travel and home-location inference	Space-time clustering test for crime contagion
开创性文献	Rossmo, D. K. (2000). Geographic Profiling. CRC Press. ISBN: 9780849381294	Townsley, M., Homel, R., & Chaseling, J. (2003). Infectious burglaries: A test of the near repeat hypothesis. British Journal of Criminology, 43(3), 615–633.
别名	Journey-to-Crime Modeling, Geographic Profiling, Crime Trip Analysis, Distance-Decay Crime Analysis	Near Repeat Calculator Method, Space-Time Near-Repeat Analysis, Near-Repeat Victimization, Contagion Crime Pattern Analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	Journey-to-crime analysis studies how far and where offenders travel from an anchor point — usually home — to commit crimes, and inverts that pattern to infer an unknown offender's likely base. The aggregate distance-decay regularity (most crimes occur near the offender's home, with frequency falling off with distance) underlies geographic profiling, formalized by D. Kim Rossmo in 2000 to prioritize the search for serial offenders.	Near-repeat analysis tests whether crimes cluster in space and time beyond chance: after a crime occurs, are nearby locations at elevated risk for a short period? Developed in the early 2000s by Townsley, Johnson, Bowers and colleagues for burglary, it formalizes the 'contagion' or 'communicable disease' pattern of crime using a Knox space-time test against a Monte Carlo reference distribution.