方法对比

	Horizon Scanning	Technology Foresight
领域	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
方法族	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
起源年份	2009	1995
提出者	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community	Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes
类型	Systematic search-and-detection process	Participatory future-oriented strategic process
开创性文献	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.	Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.
别名	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis	Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis
相关	4	4
摘要	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.	Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action.